The lessons the Democrats could have learned from the Arab Spring

In 2012, I and others developed a model of country stability to better understand the Arab Spring. The model was simple enough to be used as a mental model – you could carry it around in your head – but nevertheless had some predictive power: not a crystal ball, but enough to be extremely useful in scenario planning.

In November 2020, over a month before Trump’s insurrection, we applied the model to the US in an article titled Will America Explode? The article scored the US against the four factors in the model and concluded,

“If Biden is confirmed as president, there will be a temptation to breathe a sigh of relief. But none of these four factors will be immediately affected unless he takes action. That would leave America in a position similar to that of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the Yemen before the Arab Spring took place – extremely vulnerable.”

We then set out a series of short- and long-term actions which Biden should take. He did not take them, and on 6 January  2021, Trump launched his attempted insurrection.

I have recently been pondering the question: what if Biden had listened?

We can never be sure, but it seems likely that if he had followed the steps we recommended, what is happening today might not be happening:

• The short-term recommendations might have avoided the insurrection;
• The long-term recommendations were more challenging, but could have enabled him to return America to its former status of Thriving Democracy; and at least
• The Democrats could have used the four factors as the basis of powerful messaging to the American people – as, paradoxically, Trump did.

He might have Avoided the Insurrection

In the 1960s, America saw itself, and was seen by most of the world, as a thriving democracy with little poverty, a united population, a functioning safety valve in the form of democratic elections, and an effective rule of law.

But since the 1980s, the economy had increasingly ceased to work for ordinary people.

By November 2020, the time of our article, COVID had killed over 170,000 Americans and impoverished many more, the population had become divided, Trump had cast doubt on the validity of the election – “So this is just a way they’re trying to steal the election, and everybody knows that. Because the only way they’re going to win is by a rigged election” – there had already been armed riots in the US, and Trump was making it clear that he did not want to follow the law.

So, our analysis suggested that America had reached the status of ‘failing democracy.’

This was the kind of status that in many countries had led to the Arab Spring.

Our short-term recommendations included:

• Poverty: Pay Americans an immediate and generous COVID-support package (which will also make compliance with medical guidance far easier);
• Rule of Law: Liaise immediately with all branches of Police, Military and Security services to agree protocols in case of violence — contain but do not inflame;
• Democratic safety valve: Take immediate action to prevent further disinformation by Trump and his associates. Negotiate elements of a pardon conditional on his handing over power and publicly recognising the election as fair;
• United population: Use strong, repeated unifying rhetoric.

It is not certain that following these suggestions would have avoided the insurrection, but it seems likely.

He might have made America a Thriving Democracy

More challenging would have been the longer-term actions:

• Poverty: implement 5 key actions to rebalance the economy on behalf of the 99% of the population who had not benefited from market capitalism;
• Rule of Law: Longer term: reform to address institutional racism;
• Democratic safety valve: Longer term electoral reform of the multiple anomalies in the US system. Make interference in democratic processes a serious criminal offence;
• United population: Review of media and social media to ensure that they cannot play a role in propagating divisive misinformation. Review of education to ensure that Americans are taught to unify rather than divide.

There would have been far more resistance to these actions from within the Democratic Party as well as elsewhere, and it would have needed clarity and fortitude like that of F D Roosevelt to pull it off. But if Biden had been able to do so, and to communicate his progress, he would already have gone some way towards restoring America to its former position as a thriving democracy.

Instead, although the Biden administration did many good things it failed to tackle voters’ most important concerns … and the consequences have been disastrous.

Biden delivered some progress on many metrics, as Bloomberg pointed out, including immigration, health, jobs,  inflation, energy transition, total household wealth and  homicides. But he did not deliver for the median voter.

Astonishingly, Biden delivered lower growth in median wages than either Trump or Obama (even though Obama’s first term coincided with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis).

There were other reasons, such as Biden’s frailty and the confusion in the Democratic campaign, why Trump was elected but, because of the data above,  Trump was able to campaign asking, “Do you feel better off than four years ago?” – a killer question in any election.

The Democrats could have had more Resonant Messaging

Although Trump’s policies have been far from what America needed, as the Financial Times (FT) put it, Trump is the Wrong Answer to the Right Questions. His pre-election messaging attempted to address all four issues, especially the first, which is most important for many voters. And for three of them it did so clearly and directly, though not honestly.

And even on the fourth point, though he is one of the most divisive politicians in recent history, his pre-election rhetoric sought to obscure that fact.

In contrast, the Democrats’ rhetoric was less clear and far less focussed on voters’ key issues. In many areas, they seemed not even to acknowledge the concerns. As the FT went on,

                “One of the reasons that Trump rose as a political figure in the first place was that he was willing to question anything and everything about conventional politics, economics and foreign policy: the liberal meritocracy, the Washington Consensus, the idea that free trade was an unfettered good. It was a tonic welcomed by a public disenchanted by centrists on both sides of the aisle who had for decades failed to acknowledge and address the problems of the old order that were hiding in plain sight. … In lieu of honesty and a sensible conversation about how to transition to a new world order, we got Trump. He has no real answers, only ego, sharp animal instincts and a talent for turning the tables on adversaries at any given moment.”

Even though their policies would have been far less damaging for most Americans, the Democrats failed to address voters’ largest issues, and their communication was not as strong as Trump’s.

But America’s path was not unavoidable. If Biden had listened, the world might be different today.

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