A picture showing poverty, the state of the NHS and sewage discharging into a river

Sir Keir Starmer promised a – badly needed – decade of national renewal. But unless he takes bold action, he may end up like Biden: a brief interlude in the slide to plutocracy.

Last year, after 14 years of Conservative rule, a Labour government was elected with a large majority on a promise of delivering a decade of national renewal. Voters’ key issues were: #1 the cost-of-living crisis; #2 the state of the NHS; and, vying for #3, the climate emergency and immigration. We can assume that national renewal means tangible progress on at least the first two issues.

Just before the 2024 general election, we warned that although the Conservatives seemed set to lose the election (which was an important battle to lose) the far-right had no intention of losing the war. And so it has turned out: Labour has faced an extraordinary media and social media onslaught on issues real and manufactured (such as the alleged failure to tackle child abuse) and is sinking in the polls.

We believe that the promised national renewal will only happen if the government becomes bolder both politically and economically.

Politically, the government has so far stuck to the ‘small target strategy’ (avoid saying anything that could give red meat to the right-wing media: no radical ideas; nothing too progressive; no mention of Brexit, etc) that saw it elected. As we have argued, sticking to this strategy in office would cause failure to deliver for voters. And, of course, it will not be possible to tackle the threats to UK democracy posed by Musk and others without incurring the displeasure of the right-wing media. Political boldness will be essential.

Economically, the Chancellor’s first Budget was the first move in the right direction for 14 years, but it was not enough to tackle the headwinds – likely to increase with Trump – that the UK economy faces. In the face of subdued growth, the Chancellor has recommitted to her fiscal rules. And she has, as yet, taken no steps to rewire Britain’s economic institutions (although the Prime Minister has acknowledged the need for rewiring).

The risks the UK faces are that a conventional interpretation of her fiscal rules would lead to yet more damaging austerity (the Chancellor has hinted that there may be cuts coming); and without rewiring, Reeves could recreate a Liz Truss-like outcome in the gilts market. Neither of these risks need materialise: there is room for creative interpretation of the fiscal rules in such a way as to create far more headroom; and recreating the Liz Truss experience would only happen if the government failed to coordinate key institutions like the Treasury, the OBR and the Bank of England (as Truss failed to do). We have set out one way to rewire our key institutions to prevent this kind of problem.

In short, there is a risk that the new government will succeed only in doing less damage than its predecessors. If it does not deliver a tangible improvement in voters’ lives, and if it allows industrial-scale disinformation to dominate the media landscape, it will not be re-elected. As in the US, it may be followed by a far-right government. And there will be no national renewal.

By recognising the seriousness of the problems it and the country faces – and the need for a correspondingly serious response – the government can still deliver on its promise of national renewal. But there is no time to waste, and it will take courage.

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